Sunday, January 6, 2008

The Political Implications of the 2010 Census

Early projections from Election Data Services and Polidata give the Republicans some rare good news. The seats in the House of Representatives for each state is determined by their proportion of the population, with each state guaranteed a minimum of one. 2010 marks the next census, and new figures for the House. According to the projections, here is how many seats each state stands to gain or lose:


Texas — up four seats to 36.
Florida — up two seats to 27.
Arizona — up two seats to 10.
North Carolina — up one seat to 14.
South Carolina — up one seat to seven.
Georgia — up one seat to 14.
Utah — up one seat to four.
Nevada — up one seat to four.
Oregon — up one seat to six.


New York — down two seats to 27.
Ohio — down two seats to 16.
Massachusetts — down one seat to nine.
New Jersey — down one seat to 12.
Pennsylvania — down one seat to 18.
Michigan — down one seat to 14.
Illinois — down one seat to 18.
Minnesota — down one seat to seven.
Iowa — down one seat to four.
Missouri — down one seat to eight.
Louisiana — down one seat to six.
California — down one seat to 52.

If we use the latest two elections as guide, the census data implies the Republicans will gain about 15 seats. Everyone wants to move south.

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