Monday, August 31, 2009

Study Confirms Palin, not the Economic Crisis, Sank the McCain Campaign

A new study of detailed polling supports what I've said here from the beginning: it was Sarah Palin, not that economic meltdown, that sank McCain:

John McCain’s August 29 announcement of Palin as his running mate surprised the Republican establishment, the media, and especially voters. She made a strong first impression: she enjoyed high approval ratings after her acceptance speech, and the percentage of voters saying that they intended to vote Republican skyrocketed. But within days of the speech, her ratings began a precipitous slide from which she—and the McCain campaign—never recovered. Throughout the rest of the campaign, vote intentions were closely tied to Palin’s approval ratings: each major Palin approval drop was followed, within a day or two, by a drop in McCain vote intention. No other factor moved McCain support with such precision. Comparison of the correlation between running mate approval ratings and vote intentions from 2000 and 2004 confirms Palin’s peculiar importance in 2008.

Yeah, "within days of the speech" was when all the information about what an ignorant loon she is came to light. The only question left isn't whether she cost the GOP in 2008, it's whether the GOP will sink itself with her in 2012.


Peter L. Winkler said...

The GOP can disappear tomorrow and the the Demorats still won't pass a meaningful health care insurance reform, or stop funding the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. They have been totally corrupted by legalized bribery euphemistically called the campaign finance system and their thirst for a slice of power. Since the animating force of any political party is to achieve and maintain an electoral majority, few Demorats dare criticize Obama, their party's leader.

Anonymous said...

I remember all the head-scratching that went on after she was announced as his runningmate, and there was an article (I want to say it was in the Washington Post but can't remember for sure now) wherein "sources" indicated that his top pick was Lieberman, but some of his advisors practically bullied him into choosing Palin. They thought that she would win women voters, when in fact she managed to alienate most of us every time she opened her mouth.