It is obvious by his choice of Sarah "I don't need to answer no steenking questions" Palin as Veep that John McCain's strategy is to focus on his Creationist, AGW denialist, tax-cut worshipping base at the expense of everything else. This can't work, because there just aren't enough votes there. Look at this graphic:
Sure, it shows that the Republican voters, especially the delegates, are out to lunch, especially the last one. No one, no one, in their right mind with all the information available, can think that going into Iraq was a good idea, regardless of what we need to do now to dislodge ourself from it. There is a reason the Republicans sold the war by claiming it would be easy and quick.
However the really revealing thing about the graph is that in each question the "Democratic voters" figures are closer to the "All voters" figure than is the "Republican voters" figure. This suggests there are more Democratic voters, or that the independents agree more with the Democrats. Either way McCain is screwed. If we assume the proportion of independents is zero, and estimate the D/R percentages from the polling data, we get somewhere between 54.0% and 60.6% Democrat.
There is not a shred of evidence so far that McCain will win this election. Every piece of polling data I have seen that didn't use grotesquely flawed techniques (like Gallup polling equal numbers of both parties) shows Obama clearly ahead in electoral votes (countrywide polls are meaningless), and prior to the GOP convention bounce, the gap was widening. If none of that changes, and that's a big if, and we get a McCain surprise victory in November, we'll for the first time in my political life have iron-clad evidence of voter fraud. The Gore-really-won crowd has some interesting circumstantial evidence, but nothing like this would be. Gore wasn't consistently beating Bush in the polls while everyone but Bush's base laughed at the GOP as they are now.