tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3498725671447004370.post7196974621102338364..comments2023-10-26T07:19:41.446-05:00Comments on Science Avenger: The Margin of Error, and Why "Statistically Tied" is NonsenseScienceAvengerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00855046387193200080noreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3498725671447004370.post-42391284873804468352008-11-03T09:04:00.000-06:002008-11-03T09:04:00.000-06:00"practically baseless". I know, I know; one would..."practically baseless". I know, I know; one would have to calculate a conditional probability, but the p-value of<BR/><BR/>Ho: Obama's support hasn't changed vs.<BR/>Ha: Obama's support went up<BR/><BR/>would be rather inconclusive, to say the least. :-)<BR/><BR/>I understand the point that you are making; my guess is that you would really enjoy this blog post <A HREF="http://blog.case.edu/singham/2008/09/02/understanding_polls" REL="nofollow">Mano Singham's blog</A><BR/><BR/>It gives a cool table that gives you the conditional probability that candidate X is ahead given that X's lead is n points and the margin of error is m points.Harriethttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17953435368705942387noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3498725671447004370.post-53213693367448854122008-11-03T08:16:00.000-06:002008-11-03T08:16:00.000-06:00Not true. In your scenario, we'd have gone from b...Not true. In your scenario, we'd have gone from being 95% confident that his true figure was between 45% and 51% to being equally sure it is between 46% and 52%. Now granted that isn't exactly earth shattering, but it isn't baseless or nothing either.ScienceAvengerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00855046387193200080noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3498725671447004370.post-84837619378729252482008-11-03T07:16:00.000-06:002008-11-03T07:16:00.000-06:00Margin of error does have more meaning when it com...Margin of error does have more meaning when it comes to seeing whether or not support for a candidate has changed.<BR/><BR/>Example: if BHO was at 48 yesterday and 49 today and the margin of error is 3 percent, it is baseless to say that he has gained support; one can conclude almost nothing.<BR/><BR/>Of course, 3-day trackers help smooth things out a bit.Harriethttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17953435368705942387noreply@blogger.com